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Predictive Modelling of Inter-domain QoS – Using ARIMA with outliers


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Salzburg Research
Uni Budapest

Goals

  • Model validation by policy based monitoring considering different kind of network connectivity, inter-domain routing policies, costs, resource and QoS parameter restrictions.
  • Long range and short term modelling of inter-domain traffic and QoS based on monitoring data
  • Integration of new algorithms for detecting anomalies in inter-connected domain infrastructure, normal and abnormal behaviour (“QoS outliers”) , event pattern study, automated detection and localisation of specific inter-domain problems (e.g. DoS attacks, bottleneck and excess capacity)
  • Mathematical, operative and predictive models based on measurements for inter-domain QoS analysis

INTERMON ARIMA based Forecasting with “outliers”

  • Modelling and prediction of time series data of QoS parameters considering “outliers”
    - Usage of Box&Jenkins (or ARIMA) methodology (differencing the process to remove non-stationarity) and preliminary outliers elimination

  • Multivariate QoS outliers – loss and delay

  • Comparison of different approaches for forecasting - forecast without outlier, with correction of outliers and without correction of outliers with the real data

State of the Art